Picks of the Week

[lower14]

Last Week: 0-5

Year to Date: 12-8


Louisiana State -14 at Mississippi State

Don't be confused by the final score of the MS State/Georgia game - State picked up a late touchdown after being stuffed the entire game. State had 50 lousy yards rushing 250 total yards against Georgia and LSU's defense is much better than Georgia's. LSU has won five straight against State and 9 of the last 10. More importantly, they're coming off a loss that they know they let slip away, so they'll "keep up the skeer" against a completely overmatched MS State team.



Arizona State +17.5 vs. Southern California

Losing your best defensive back (Terrell Thomas) and one of your starting linebackers right before facing one of the best offenses in the country doesn't bode well for USC. Arizona State has the horses on the offensive line to at least give QB Sam Keller decent protection to find Derek Hagan. Keller has thrown for at least 3 TDs in each of his five starts and hasn't thrown a pick in his last 127 attempts, so it is unlikely that ASU will beat themselves. Although ASU has a freshman starter at running back, Keegan Herring has shown the ability to run against a good defense and is averaging 7.7 yards per carry against some tough defenses in LSU and Oregon State. There aren't many teams who can score with USC, but ASU is one of them and 17 points is a hell of a lot for a matchup between Top 15 teams, particularly when the underdog is at home.


UTEP -2.5 at Memphis

OK, you tell me what this is about - Memphis loses its top 2 quarterbacks and is starting a true freshman this week, UTEP is coming off a big win against an underrated New Mexico team, UTEP held New Mexico to 2/3 of their normal offensive output (285 to 440) and they have two defensive linemen returning from injury who will be full-speed this week after playing only a little against New Mexico. And they're favored by less than a field goal. Even before the injuries to their QBs, Memphis was a one-trick team; they're even more so now. Look for UTEP to put 8 in the box and crowd the safety to contain Williams. UTEPs offense isn't much, but even two scores may be enough to cover.


Maryland +4 vs. Virginia

Virginia and Purdue may be the most overrated teams in the nation right now. Virginia stumbled through wins against Western Michigan and Syracuse before spanking Duke last week. Maryland, on the other hand, has played some tough teams closely. Maryland is 3rd nationally in pass defense and Virginia QB Marques Hagans has already thrown as many picks this year than he did all last year. Add to the mix that Virginia is missing their two best linemen, including D'Brickshaw Ferguson (likely a Top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year), and Hagans could have a very tough day. Also, the home team has won this game the past 4 years.


Notre Dame +3.5 at Purdue

In the same vein as above, we have a good football team against an overrated one. The Irish do give up a lot of passing yards, but Purdue QB Brandon Kirsch is completing less than 50% of his passes, playing much lesser teams, so this probably won't be a big deal. Purdue gave up over 300 yards rushing against Minnesota, and Notre Dame's balanced offense with Brady Quinn and Darius Walker should be able to keep Purdue off-balance. Purdue has also lost 18 of their last 20 games that have been decided by a touchdown or less.

[GordonGekko]

Lower, you might wanna rethink how good LSU defense is...they are very weak at the corners (lots of missed assignments)...however, they are going to stuff the run and force MSU to throw...if Conner can complete a few passes this may be a closer game than you think....

[Greenhead22]

Line has changed: MSU +14.5 vs LSU

[lower14]

Lower, you might wanna rethink how good LSU defense is...they are very weak at the corners (lots of missed assignments)...however, they are going to stuff the run and force MSU to throw...if Conner can complete a few passes this may be a closer game than you think....

Arizona State and Tennessee can make most anyone look weak at the corners; those are two of the best offenses in the country. And I'll take my chances on Connor not being able to even keep the game close through the air. And even though LSU is on a short week, this one ain't even gonna be close.

[GordonGekko]

o.k. I'll get you ASU having a good offense, but sayin UT is one of the best in the country I've been around ball a long time...never seen UT look worse offensively than this year...second half of the LSU game excluded.... Just my 2 cents....

[lower14]

o.k. I'll get you ASU having a good offense, but sayin UT is one of the best in the country I've been around ball a long time...never seen UT look worse offensively than this year...second half of the LSU game excluded.... Just my 2 cents....

"Most talented" might be a better phrase. And they looked very, very sharp in the second half on Monday.

[bigwater]

lower 14..

0-5... wtf..


the only game you've got listed that i'd touch is the utep game.. take that duunk coach from utep...

[lower14]

lower 14..

0-5... wtf..


the only game you've got listed that i'd touch is the utep game.. take that duunk coach from utep...

Yeah, oh-fer. First one in six years. I'll blame it on the fact that my parents were meeting my fiancee's parents for the first time last weekend and my mind may have been elsewhere. Gotta blame someone - after all, it couldn't be MY fault.

[lower14]

And, after additional review, a bonus Pick of the Week:

Pittsburgh +1 at Rutgers

Pitt has won 6 straight and 19 of 22 overall in this series. Rutgers' pass defense is 98th in the nation, and they're 86th in total defense, and that after playing known offensive powerhouses Illinois, Villanova, and Buffalo, who won't remind anyone of the 1996 Florida Gators. Tyler Palko and Greg Lee finally seem to be getting into Dave Wannstedt's new offensive scheme. Rutgers has some weapons on offense, namely FB Brian Leonard, but they did only put up 17 points against freaking Buffalo. I see this one turning into a shootout and Pitt is better equipped for that than Rutgers is.