River is fixing to get serious, boys!!!

[tombstone]

To novacaine, DanP, and the rest of you guys working so hard to figure this stuff out, We appreciate your efforts. Many folks have no idea what we are facing. Thanks guys and thanks to the Levee Board (that infuriates me sometimes). They are doing all they can.

just a little humor for the day. Maybe someone can muster a smile from it:

A lady I work with (who lives at the base of the levee) was in the Tobacco Store yesterday and overheard “a good plan”. Two black girls and a black guy were talking and the girl told the other two that some redneck white person was gonna blow the levee and flood Clarksdale “cause day know can’t no black folks swim. Them rednecks is gonna try to take day town back. You know dem dat come in here in camo.” The young black gentlemen replied, “I can swim”. At his response he was told by the other black girl, “ Fool, you know you can’t swim in no flood waters and ain’t nobody in yo whole family can swim”. My coworker told them that they must think it is redneck conspiracy and the black girl replied, “ I don’t know what all dat means but yeah”.

Non Swimmers.

[stang67]

Help me out. With a crest of 57.5 at V'burg, that's an elevation of 103.7ft. How can that overtop the YBW levee?

[Deltaquack]

I had to go yesterday and start putting stuff in the attic that I had previously moved up head high. Man, at 53.5.....the water will be 4-5 feet higher than the 1927 levee which still sits in the middle of our camp.

[novacaine]

I scared to many people.......sorry about that.
That scenario was if we overtopped/breached absolute worst case.
Hopefully new hydraulic predictions will show that that won't happen. Lets see what meetings today in Yazoo City and tomorrow in Rolling Fork tell us. Hopefully we will see a reduced gage prediction.
Once again.......sorry if i upset anyone.

[ScottyLee]

did i really read 65 foot at NAtchez?!?!?!

what does this do to natchez area. or the other side of river in la? natchez might stay dry becuase it on high ground?

[deltadukman]

what does this do to natchez?!

[TODO]

Wow again. Question for Novacain/DanP- what kind of event is this? I read the 100 year wat 61 at greenville so this is well over that. 200 year? 500 year? Anybody know?

Also, i got an email with the 10 highest stages at ark city- was the gauge different in 1927 than 1930's to today? In other words, would the 1927 stage of 59.2 be similar to a 59.2 stage today? Here they are per email below. They had a bad run from 1927-1937

Ark city
Historical Crests
(1) 59.20 ft on 04/21/1927
(2) 58.80 ft on 05/29/1929
(3) 53.90 ft on 02/14/1937
(4) 53.60 ft on 06/04/1933
(5) 53.50 ft on 02/25/1932
(6) 51.70 ft on 04/06/1935
(7) 47.80 ft on 01/28/1930
(8) 47.60 ft on 05/11/1973
(9) 47.10 ft on 06/08/1935
(10) 46.30 ft on 04/06/1945

[DanP]

Deleted - clarified in following post.

[lowbar]

Alright guys.........I know this may be a little over the top but this morning between 3:30 and 4:00 i wrote this for my family members ( of which there are a lot) and friends that live down south in Anguilla, Delta City, Rollingfork, etc..........just to be prepared.........based on this lidar data we have.
Don't panic its just my worst case scenerio based on a 107.5-108.
Here goes
To family and friends-
Predicted backwater flood heights (as of 5-2-2-11) per USACE------------107.5 ft to 108.0 ft.
I checked centerline of Hwy elevations and other locations with current Lidar.
Valley Park: centerline Hwy 61=104.6 ft/ Church parking lot =101.7 ft
Onward: centerline Hwy 61 =103.9 ft/ parking lot Onward store=100.8 ft
Egremont- centerline Hwy 61 approx. ½ mile south of Egremont =107 ft. Stays at 107 and above for only ½ mile north.
Rolling Fork: 107 ft contour in centerline Hwy 61 approx 1.0 miles south of the fork of 61 and road heading into Rollingfork. At Rollingfork- centerline Hwy 61/16 =107.8 ft. Ozell Courtneys store parking lot =104.4 ft.
Vickland: Hwy 61/Delta City Road= 111.6 ft
Delta City: Intersection Delta City/Sweet Home Road=107.2 ft . Durrell’s store parking lot=106.4 ft.
Tom Price’s front yard: 104.5 ft
Delta City/Hankins road intersection=101.8 ft. Hankins road (in front of house)=101.1 ft.
PantherBurn: centerline Hwy 61 (in front of honky tonk)=112.3 ft
Hollandale: Hwy 61/12 intersection=116.5 ft
Hwy 12 at intersection of Delta City Road= 106.9 ft.
Hwy 12 bridge approach over Sunflower River (west side)=117 ft.
Hwy 12/49 Intersection in Belzoni=112.4 ft.
Hwy 14/49 intersection (north of Louise)=105.8 ft
Hwy 14 bridge approach (over Sunflower River)= 105.5 ft
Yazoo Backwater Levee: From Brunswich levee tie-in across Steele Bayou Structure over to Little Sunflower Structure approx. =107 ft to 108 ft………………….Steele Bayou Structure is overbuilt to around 112 ft.
From the maps I have, once at flood stage the access will be from Anguilla north on Hwy 61. Roads will be questionable east out of Hollandale on Hwy 12 to the Sunflower River bridge. Roads will be impassable east out of Anguilla on Hwy 14 to Louise. Hwy 61 may be questionable between Rollingfork and Anguilla.
Hwy 49 should be o.k. down to at least Silver City but you wont be able to cross the Will Whittington canal because everything between there and Yazoo City will be under water. Midnight to Louis should be out of the water.
Now my disclaimer:
This is based on predictions of Yazoo backwater at 107.5 ft to 108ft. Lidar derived elevations may be off +/- 0.5 ft. Timing and full extent of flooding is unknown but we know a record flood event is coming that will severely weaken or overtop the backwater levees . Anticipated crest is around May 18th. Be prepared to vacate while you still have a dry road to ride on.
There will be a meeting at the National Guard Armory in Rolling Fork on Wednesday at 10:00 and tomorrow at 2:00 in Yazoo City at the Board of Supervisors office.
State and local officials will come up with an official all inclusive evacuation plan soon but I wanted to get this out to you because sometimes delays are costly.
If any of you have any questions please route them through Steve since he knows the country down there.
Good Luck………I’ll be praying for you all.

Bill,

Do you think it will cross the highway into town in Anguilla? I hear Tom already is getting out and Mama is all upset.

[camlock]

these current predictions are average 8 foot higher than the worst floods since 1900's in Natchez, and all of those floods change and altered significantly....who knows what it'll be come July...

[dukhntn]

There are a few spots on 61 south, mainly around Cooper Lighting, Yokena, and the Big Black flat where roadtop is at 100'-103'.

[DanP]

Ok just got off phone with the Corp...

Yazoo Backwater Levees are at 107. The MS River will crest at 57.5' = 103.73'. Yazoo River headwater will drive it up to 107'.

There will be some spill over into the Yazoo Backwater Area - BUT - the Corp is still projecting 95' @ Steele Bayou landside. I'm pulling the 109 flood maps and going to start putting up some lower number stuff. It think the 109 is assuming catastrophic levee failure, which the Corp does not believe will happen.

[novacaine]

Ok just got off phone with the Corp...

Yazoo Backwater Levees are at 107. The MS River will crest at 57.5' = 103.73'. Yazoo River headwater will drive it up to 107'.

There will be some spill over into the Yazoo Backwater Area - BUT - the Corp is still projecting 95' @ Steele Bayou landside. I'm pulling the 109 flood maps and going to start putting up some lower number stuff. It think the 109 is assuming catastrophic levee failure, which the Corp does not believe will happen.

That's what i just heard too. Its gonna be a longggggggggggggggggg flood fight down there.

[deltadukman]

Dan, out of curiosity, what is it that you do? I assume you are very talented with GIS stuff so I am guessing you work for USDA or the like? Thanks for keeping us updated. We're headed to pull stuff out of HB this afternoon.

[DanP]

Dan, out of curiosity, what is it that you do? I assume you are very talented with GIS stuff so I am guessing you work for USDA or the like? Thanks for keeping us updated. We're headed to pull stuff out of HB this afternoon.

Ha! Thats a heckuva question been wondering that myself! I work for Delta Wildlife as a wildlife biologist, forester, and water quality guy... But do a lot of GIS stuff too and with this flood stuff its been all hands on deck for Delta Council!