DU is predicting duck production to be above average

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bob
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Chad Manlove

Postby bob » Wed Jun 23, 2004 8:57 am

Chad,
You are not alone. Many of us choose not to comment on these Anti-DU discussions because of the absurdity in responses that these "experts" and sofa "scientists" seem to know. Its great to hear the perspectives of folks that have never left the Delta and "know" duck hunting.

Chad. Just know that some of want scientific answers and appreciate hearing from actual scientists and real experts that travel the entire N. American migration.

Don't feel the need to defend yourself or DU from the any of these horse@$&* theories (DU owning land, DU& truck loads of corn) and conspiracy theories. If the dumb@$$s really want to try to promote and help duckhunting in the Delta then they'll do their own research and cease the hot air.

Bob
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Postby eastwoods » Wed Jun 23, 2004 6:42 pm

DU and DW are great organizations, I'm just bad mouthing the numbers predicted and season lengths. Po Monkey: My question was did you or your club use a spinner not did you get a bunch?

Can anybody in the AR/MS/LA area say they slaughtered ducks during the record fall flight of 43 million in 99/00 without a spinner besides Chad?
My only point is perhaps the demise started before we think it did. If it didn't and it started 01/02 then so be it. If it was such an accurate forecast why did DU stop doing it. I'm for DU preserving habitat just not in publishing number predictions. I think they probably missed getting a few bucks promoting they were so successful look how many we have. I think their learning on that score and that's why they don't post the fall flight numbers. I also wish the federal waterfowl scientists would wake up and listen to a few southern dumb whatevers and smell the roses. I don't think the small group in AR has any good proposals except the ban of spinners and reduction of days. I wish we would do something to stop refuge hopping and daylight sitting because those ducks don't do any of us any good during the season.

I will admit there were many ducks below the Mason Dixon from December 20th on during the 99/00 season. For whatever reason the duck pickers picked 50% of their usual even that year, perhaps everybody went back to work.

Is it the weather, global warming, spinner, pressure, refuges, behavior, ag practices, lack of ducks, AHM flawed, combination of all, etc. WHO KNOWS!!!, but duck hunting sucks these days in the south. Am I a dumb whatever the guy called me, guess so even with a MS in Biology, but I was smart enough to purchase another habitat/hunting spot 130 miles north of my current swamp. My next habitat project may be in Canada the way things are going.

The 00/01 was a weird one as well. No ducks to speak of then a record cold freeze and the ducks by-passed NE AR. The only significant really good hunting for the masses in NE AR was the strangest northward migration I ever experienced during season. Talk about feast or famine. When they were headin' north that year they were in the biggest bunches and moving from field to field overnight. There was no telling where they would be next.

To boil it down I am skeptical of the numbers in the late 90s that were promoted to give us the 60/6 we enjoy today. "If" we had ducks in 99/00 and that's a big "if" we don't anymore. Start telling everybody with influence that there are not any ducks anymore and stop wishing for a blizzard. Send a check to DU to preserve more nesting habitat and buy your wife a fur coat and support what DW does. Support shortened seasons, hunting on refuges, and the end of spinners. Who can change the weather anyway? I am convinced we can change the number and behavior of the duck we hunt. GO DU and DW!!! and as the infamous Duck Commander say's "what good is a duck if you can't kill it".
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Postby Ringbill » Wed Jun 23, 2004 7:40 pm

Just wanted to add one thing to Eastwoods thoughts. As a waterfowl biologist/ecologist/whatever I personally am quite comfortable with pond and population surveys, and am a proponent of AHM. However, there is an aspect of waterfowl ecology that we haven't explored well and need to understand: how does changing hunting pressure alter waterfowl behavior? I, like y'all, can't help but wonder how, for lack of better words, hunting 'intensity' has changed in the Mississippi Delta (Arkansas side too). Even vs. 20 years ago people tell me we have more time, tools and toys to chase ducks more efficenty. Then, more expendible income for many in the late 90's meant lease prices weren't as limiting, nor was equiptment. A couple of good years coincide, and recent and new duck hunters expect that hunting is like that all the time. More folks get into the sport and now rice fields that have never been hunted are leased reguarlly. Honestly, I don't believe we understand how ducks respond to pressure, how the distrubute with more water on the landscape, and if they are more likely to wait out weather if they know they will get their booty shot. These are some of the questions that I think we must address next, in my opinion (but not exclusive of good old biology, ecology, habitat management research). Luckily, folks are starting to work on it.

Josh
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Postby Wildfowler » Wed Jun 23, 2004 7:53 pm

Eastwoods, I'll take you up on that challenge. I keep pretty good hunting records. During the 99/00 season I spent about 5/8 of my time hunting public land with no spinner. Me and my buddies smoked em' that year. It was not my best year ever. But at the time, it was my personal best year to date. 00/01 turned out better as measured by total number of ducks killed which is what I suspect you're using as your measuring stick.

The "Glory Hole" ( my all time favorite local public hunting spot ) got it's name during that season because of the amazing number of Mallards that "multiplied" overhead before landing in the hole. Too bad I broke my Go-Devil on the way in the next morning, or else we'd of had a repeat of the day before when we named the glory hole.

During that season, I did not hunt while using a spinner while hunting in my regular public hunting spots. In fact, I've never even owned one. The opening weekend of that season was spent hunting on public ground. Best opening weekend I've ever had in my life. My group teamed up with some guys on public land... 3 day total was 72 ducks. ( I killed my first and only black duck that first Friday too ) and we weren't even in the best hole on the refuge. Apparently, 2 am launch time is not early enough, but it didn't matter. No spinners either. And I'm not too sure if I had even seen one by this point in time.

The next season 00/01 I spent over half of my time hunting private land in AR (Bayou Meto area). The group that I frequently hunted with was definitely "pro-spinner". My personal highest number of ducks killed ever in a year happened that season. But that year was a damn good year for us anyway regardless of the spinner. We stayed covered up with ducks that year. I hope you don't expect me to believe that had we not used the spinner that year in AR, we'd have gone from being "covered up in ducks", to not seeing any ducks that year do you Eastwoods? I just can't believe that would have really happened to us.

You can even look here: http://www.ducksouth.com/phpbb/viewtopi ... =parasites to see that as of 12/10/01 I was still killing ducks on public land on my own without a roboduck. That year did not measure as high as the stellar 00/01 season as far as sheer volume of ducks killed. But it was still a good year and I had nothing to complain about even though we did have our share of goose eggs that year.

As far as I'm concerned, last year and the year before last were slow by all standards. And the 01/02 was the first big decline from the late 90's. But otherwise, my hunting has not been the doom and gloom that you make it out to be.
Last edited by Wildfowler on Thu Jun 24, 2004 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Wildfowler » Wed Jun 23, 2004 8:07 pm

Let me append to this.


Over the past few years now, I have been following the (internet available number) duck population trends that the FWS published. You know, the figures that show the current duck population versus it's long term average. My personal observations have been that I have seen the number of ducks the FWS says I'm supposed to be seeing versus the long term average.

I do not however agree that when Mallard counts ( and other ducks too )are at the long term average that we should expect to be able to sustain liberal hunting regulations, like we have for the past couple of years now. But I'm no scientist, or biologist, this is just what I think.

I don't know if this is clear or not. But I don't really have a problem with what is going on over the past 5 to 8 years, because during that time, I watched the duck increase, ( fall flight ) peak, and decline to where we are now. Which seems to be in line with what the feds have been telling us. Sure the actual number of ducks counted couldn't possibly be 100% correct, but when I look at the long term trend in duck population overlaid against my personal observations, I see the trend lines in sync with one another.


But heck, I may well be wrong here after all. And no argument was intended by all of this. What do I know?
driven every kind of rig that's ever been made, driven the backroads so I wouldn't get weighed. - Lowell George
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Postby eastwoods » Wed Jun 23, 2004 8:36 pm

You make a lot of sense Wildfowler, I think we'd all have been happy contented campers the last two years with 30/3 and a 45/4 the year before them. Don't mean to be doom and gloom I'm just to passionate and want things to improve.
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Postby Po Monkey Lounger » Wed Jun 23, 2004 8:45 pm

Eastwoods, in '99 no one in our club had a spinner until after Christmas ---they were just hitting the market that year and were not to be found. One guy in our club found a few home made spinners at a farm supply store in northern AR near the MO border and we drove up there and purchased a couple of them.

We saw and harvested mucho ducks before we had the spinners, and after we had the spinners, more of the same. (It was a chore just keeping these home made jobs running right). I was not avoiding your question, I just did not think it made a damn bit of difference -------we were seeing LOTS of ducks ------as in they were there ------in Mississippi ----in our area----in our holes------we SAW THEM ------flying-----in the air -----landing -----in the decoys -------- loafing ----eating-----resting--------where there was water. :roll:

Not trying to throw cold water on your theory, but some of us had a great year that year.

The poster above that mentioned changed duck behavior ---BINGO -----COME ON DOWN ----you are a winner. There is no doubt that the ducks have changed their behavior patterns in the South due to increased hunting pressure. IMO, this is the primary thing(other than weather) that has negatively influenced our hunting the last few years. If the weather patterns stay the same, and the factors that affect hunting pressure stay the same, there will be many hunters who will have to change their tactics to continue harvesting as many ducks as they did before. Me and the other guys in my hunting club have had to change how we hunt, where we hunt, when we hunt, decoy deployment, etc to adjust to what the ducks are doing ----I'm sure others have as well.

Some of the suggestions of the Arkansas commission could help in this regard. But with the increased harvest success of hunters in the northern part of the flyway, getting the entire flyway to agree to some needed changes to return southern duck hunting to all its glory is going to be a tough sell. The question is if the southern states go it alone, will any changes make any real difference ------IMO, it could, especially with respect to hunting pressure concerns (ie fewer days, more splits, no afternoon hunting on WMAs or other public lands, and no spinners).
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Postby eastwoods » Wed Jun 23, 2004 8:55 pm

OK, you convinced me, there were ducks in 99/00 and 00/01. I just want them back.
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Postby Po Monkey Lounger » Wed Jun 23, 2004 9:14 pm

So do I. The last couple of years, we have just not seen as many ducks in our hunting areas. But, the good news is that some days the ducks we do see want to work, and we still have great hunts ---just not seeing skies full of ducks. And a few ducks wanting to work is better than a buttload wanting to fart around.

There may indeed be just as many ducks in our state as in years past, but if there are, they are not flying over me where I hunt. I realize that my personal experience or anectdote does not qualify as "science", but it is all that I (and most others) have to gauge a season by since most of us are not waterfowl biologists. I too have questioned the numbers being reported by the USF&W service based on my own experiences. And I am very skeptical of claims by DU, DW, etc of optimistic flight projections ---sometimes it appears that we are just being told what we want to hear. This is why I don't base my expectations on these projections, etc. I always plan to have a good time every year, no matter what. Learning to enjoy all aspects of the waterfowling experience provides me much needed R&R every year, regardless of what the ducks are doing.
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Postby Wildfowler » Thu Jun 24, 2004 8:05 am

eastwoods wrote:You make a lot of sense Wildfowler, I think we'd all have been happy contented campers the last two years with 30/3 and a 45/4 the year before them. Don't mean to be doom and gloom I'm just to passionate and want things to improve.


I personally was expecting some sort of reduction based on the fact that the duck counts were showing the duck population closer to it's long term averages. Which doesn't make sense to me, but I've never tried to understand how the framework.... works.

Logically I would think that if duck counts show bird populations below long term average, we might expect a restrictive season.

Logically I would think that if duck counts show bird populations near the long term average ( where current counts from last 2 years put us ), we might expect a moderate season.

Logically I would think that if duck counts show bird populations above long term average, we might expect a liberal season.

I know pond counts factor in also, but it just seems to me that the duck count should have the higher priority in the framework.

But again, what do I know. I'm just happy to get to hunt as often as I do, and I will continue to support what I think is the best thing to do for the ducks. Just like you.
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Postby litlhitch » Sat Jun 26, 2004 4:56 pm

Ringbill wrote :
I know better than to say anything. Maybe I don't



glad to see you chimed in..how are things down there? you winding things up with your research?
i am definately enjoying myself up here...it is amazing the difference in the number of birds in SD last year and ND this year...
hope everything's going well..make sure you keep everybody on here informed with your knowledge on DU/DW...good luck trying to keep peace :wink:
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