May Pond Count Numbers

[Don Miller]

The May pond counts should be made public in the next few weeks. From everything I've read resently, from DU, DW and other sources, it doesn't look to be a very productive year for breeding ducks in the PPR. Drier than normal conditions persist all across the PPR. I know that low duck production doesn't always equate to low numbers in the southern part of the Flyway. Most of that is due to freeze ups and snow pack above us. It does concern me that we may be headed toward a trend of bad condition on the breeding ground. As some of you know, we have enjoyed 15 plus years of above average nesting success. This is the longest wet cycle in my lifetime. With weather patterns being cyclical, we may be looking at some lean years ahead. Nothing last forever and things change. Just wondering what y'alls thoughts are on this matter.

[champcaller]

I think it would take a lot worse conditions than what we have to go away from 60/6.

From what I've read they numbers and amount of water are down from last year, but last year was one of the wettest on record and above average numbers. I think we are just closer to the baseline this year.

I also think with the mild winter there will be more successful second hatches. I've seen some hens locally that are on their third...

Sometimes the may pond counts are a little blown out of proportion and gives us something to talk about during the summer. Bottom line, no matter how good the numbers are, the success of our season will be determined by how cold it gets up north.

[Click]

not trying to hijack your thread Don but I thought this article was interesting

FEATURE
Delta Waterfowl Study Confirms Later Harvest Season
Editor's Note: The following comes to The Outdoor Wire Digital Network from Delta Waterfowl.

Download the Duck Migration Study

A Delta Waterfowl study has confirmed what veteran duck hunters have long suspected: harvests of many waterfowl are taking place significantly later in the year than in previous decades.

The Delta Duck Migration Study, commissioned by the Bipartisan Policy Center, was written by science director Dr. Frank Rohwer, Louisiana State University graduate student Bruce Davis and senior director of U.S. policy John Devney.

The study examined data from the annual Parts Collection Survey. The US Fish and Wildlife Service has collected comprehensive harvest data from hunters since 1961.

"With few exceptions, harvest dates for mallards throughout the mid-latitude and southern states have become consistently later," says Dr. Rohwer. "Mallard harvest is on average ten days later in Arkansas, fifteen days later in California, sixteen days later in Illinois, and twelve days later in Virginia."

The study found that most migrant duck species, including gadwall, ring-necked, pintails and green-winged teal, have significantly later harvest dates. Blue-winged/cinnamon teal and mottled ducks were the only species to run against the trend.

"Hunters have suspected this was happening, and for the first time, we've seen the data that confirms this on a big scale," says Rohwer. "As usual, hunters seem to know more than we give them credit for."

The report examined whether later hunting seasons were a simple explanation for later harvests. While it's true that most states have extended their seasons from the 60's, the report found this was not the 'sole driver' for shifts in harvest dates. For example, non-migrating mottled ducks in Texas and Louisiana are being harvested at about the same time as 50 years ago. But hunters in those states are harvesting mallards much later in the year, suggesting that Mallards - which are strictly migrants from the north - are arriving later.

So does a later harvest mean ducks are actually migrating later?

Dr. Rohwer says the best way to evaluate shifts in migrations would be a history of waterfowl counts throughout the flyways. Unfortunately, comprehensive fall migration surveys do not exist.

"The beauty of the Parts Collection Survey is that it has been conducted in the same manner since 1961 and records the date, location and species of duck killed. It provides a good general sense of when duck harvest is taking place, which we suspect is a reasonable surrogate for timing of migration."

A hot topic in southern duck blinds is whether changes in northern agriculture that provide additional food may be holding ducks longer in northern states. The theory goes that field-feeding ducks like mallards and pintails will stay longer; fatting up on left over corn and soy beans in higher latitudes.

If food was the driver of migration and harvest dates, says Dr. Rohwer, then gadwall and ring-necked ducks that never feed in fields should migrate and be harvested at the same time as in prior decades. The harvest data, however, shows that all four species show similar shifts in delayed harvest. The idea that northern agriculture is holding ducks back is 'unlikely', concludes the report.

The report also had a preliminary look at whether or not migration may be delayed because of the potential effects of climate change. While the report concluded it's 'plausible', the harvest data can neither prove nor disprove any connection between migration and climate change.

Waterfowl hunters are obviously interested in the timing of migrations, says Dr. Rohwer. The importance for the outdoor industry, tourism and waterfowl management make a compelling argument for more research into migration.

"Hunters, the outdoor industry and resource managers are not passive observers," says Dr. Rohwer. "They are expecting an answer to the deceptively simple question: Are ducks migrating later. They are holding policymakers and the scientific community accountable for an answer, as they surely should."

The Delta Migration Study is available in its entirety at on Delta Waterfowl's web site (http://www.deltawaterfowl.org/pressrele ... nStudy.pdf) or www.seasonsend.org.

Delta Waterfowl Foundation is a leading North American conservation organization, tracing its origins to the birth of the wildlife conservation movement in 1911. The Foundation supports research, provides leadership and offers science-based solutions to efficiently conserve waterfowl and secure the future of waterfowl hunting. Delta Waterfowl is based in Winnipeg, Manitoba, and Bismarck, N.D.

[DUCK-HUNT]

I hope we have 4 years of shatty hatches/migrations


Maybe then all these jack legs that think duck hunting is the cool thing to do will go back to deer hunting and peace and quite will be restored to the woods... And by then I should have a dog that's worth a shat.

[Deltamud77]

A hot topic in southern duck blinds is whether changes in northern agriculture that provide additional food may be holding ducks longer in northern states. The theory goes that field-feeding ducks like mallards and pintails will stay longer; fatting up on left over corn and soy beans in higher latitudes.

If food was the driver of migration and harvest dates, says Dr. Rohwer, then gadwall and ring-necked ducks that never feed in fields should migrate and be harvested at the same time as in prior decades. The harvest data, however, shows that all four species show similar shifts in delayed harvest. The idea that northern agriculture is holding ducks back is 'unlikely', concludes the report.

So you are telling me that those piles of corn and beans in Missouri as high as a two story house are having no effect?

DonMiller...I agree with your assessment of a really good overall hatch for the last 15 years and we may be on a down cycle. Oddly though, in my personal experience, there are less ducks year in and out now in Mississippi than there were 15 years ago. Now my experience probably has something to do with being in college and having a little more time and opportunity to hunt 15 years ago, but I still think the hunting was better 15 years ago. To that point 1998 is still my best personal year from the perspective of kills and consistently seeing birds.

A phenomenon I have also noticed in the last 15 years is the absence of a "first flight" in the mornings unless you are really on the X. I remember hunting marginal holes in the 90s and there always seemed to be a first flight that was thick with birds. Now, more of my hunts consist of picking off birds throughout the morning in small groups. Again, this may be attributed to less days in the field, etc. This is hunting many of the same places as 15-20 years ago though.

[Don Miller]

I can remember some really good hunts in the late 80's and early 90's, post point system (2 mallard-3 duck total limit days). If I remember correctly for a couple or three seasons we only had 30 days. That caused a lot of duck hunters to give it up. That also made it less competative. That is when I started hunting public land on my own during my college years. If there were 5 boat trailers at the landing on a weekend we thought that was crowded. With that being said everyone killed there limits quickly. Now it is common to see as many as 20 plus parties hunting the same place on a week day. I certainly don't wish for 3/30 again but you could venture out on public land and work ducks without being surrounded by the flash of spinning wing decoys and the constant noise of highballing duck calls.

[pondman]

I can remember some really good hunts in the late 80's and early 90's, post point system (2 mallard-3 duck total limit days). If I remember correctly for a couple or three seasons we only had 30 days. That caused a lot of duck hunters to give it up. That also made it less competative. That is when I started hunting public land on my own during my college years. If there were 5 boat trailers at the landing on a weekend we thought that was crowded. With that being said everyone killed there limits quickly. Now it is common to see as many as 20 plus parties hunting the same place on a week day. I certainly don't wish for 3/30 again but you could venture out on public land and work ducks without being surrounded by the flash of spinning wing decoys and the constant noise of highballing duck calls.

This!!! Sometimes we did not even launch until 8:30 or 9.

[champcaller]

I think the sport of waterfowling is past the point of no return and even a few years of 30/3 wouldn't drastically reduce the number of hunters on public land.

[RiverDuck]

I think the sport of waterfowling is past the point of no return and even a few years of 30/3 wouldn't drastically reduce the number of hunters on public land.

I agree, the numbers of people hunting has gone up and will continute to go up, but the amount of public land made available to hunt on has stayed relatively the same, or even lowered if you took into account draws .

[JaMak84]

I think the sport of waterfowling is past the point of no return and even a few years of 30/3 wouldn't drastically reduce the number of hunters on public land.

I agree, the numbers of people hunting has gone up and will continute to go up, but the amount of public land made available to hunt on has stayed relatively the same, or even lowered if you took into account draws .

This is where I get confused. Year after year we're told by the MDWFP that license purchases are down and hunter numbers are down, but that's not the trend we're seeing in the field. There has been a draw put in place for the sole reason that the number of hunters has outgrown the resource, but license purchase data doesn't reflect that. Where's the disconnect?

[the tree]

Just a thought but, 2 years ago the oils spill shut down the summer gulf fishing for 4-6 months. Today the saltwater fishing off coastal Alabama is better when anyone can ever remember. Bait fish and small mullet in the bay and delta are everywhere. The bible instructed farmers to allow their field to rest every 7 years. I wonder what would happen if we limited the season to 30 days or closed it all togather for a year.

[fieldt76]

Just a thought but, 2 years ago the oils spill shut down the summer gulf fishing for 4-6 months. Today the saltwater fishing off coastal Alabama is better when anyone can ever remember. Bait fish and small mullet in the bay and delta are everywhere. The bible instructed farmers to allow their field to rest every 7 years. I wonder what would happen if we limited the season to 30 days or closed it all togather for a year.

my feelings would be hurt.... but I get what you're saying.

[RiverDuck]

I think the sport of waterfowling is past the point of no return and even a few years of 30/3 wouldn't drastically reduce the number of hunters on public land.

I agree, the numbers of people hunting has gone up and will continute to go up, but the amount of public land made available to hunt on has stayed relatively the same, or even lowered if you took into account draws .

This is where I get confused. Year after year we're told by the MDWFP that license purchases are down and hunter numbers are down, but that's not the trend we're seeing in the field. There has been a draw put in place for the sole reason that the number of hunters has outgrown the resource, but license purchase data doesn't reflect that. Where's the disconnect?

Is this general hunting license or waterfowl stamps? And is this a fact or hearsay?

I'd be really interested to see what Resident/Nonresident state waterfowl stamps have been the last 5-10 years. I'd bet that our in state numbers were up and our OOS sales were down... I know if I was an out of state hunter coming to hunt public land from anywhere east of MS I would drive another 2-3 hours and hunt Arkansas' public land as opposed to ours.

[Don Miller]

Just a thought but, 2 years ago the oils spill shut down the summer gulf fishing for 4-6 months. Today the saltwater fishing off coastal Alabama is better when anyone can ever remember. Bait fish and small mullet in the bay and delta are everywhere. The bible instructed farmers to allow their field to rest every 7 years. I wonder what would happen if we limited the season to 30 days or closed it all togather for a year.

A total collapse of the delta economy. All joking aside, there are many landowners throughout the delta that would take a huge financial blow if they lost out on they're lease payments. No one is going to pay a 5 to 30k per year lease to bird watch. Then there are the outfitters and the OOS tourist that come to the delta and spend money. Not to mention all the old established duck clubs that spend millions each season on wintering habitat (pumped water and planted grain crops left for wintering waterfowl). If there is no hunting or even limited hunting opportunities, they would be forced to scale back or stop completely. Fighting Bayou alone, spends around $200,000 per year in assessment dues for habitat. Also, back during the 3/30 days, there was a lot less generous donations to waterfowl conservation groups just because many duck hunters quit hunting ducks and found other things to do. In a nut shell....there is no easy solution.

[the tree]

on a side note, another 70 days we should start to see some blue wing teal!