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I have heard for years the flyway is shifting to the west. Who knows? I do know water, food, and pressure are major factors. As mentioned limited food water and every joe blow from three states standing in most of what water is in the delta has to have an effect. I think that the farmland along the river will maitain birds to this area and the OK deal is just another conspiracy theory from people who arent killing ducks. I know when we are killing ducks we arent worried about where all the other ducks are. You have alot of time to think when you are just staring at hole with some plastic ducks in it. Duck hunting like many other things has cycles, sometimes its your year sometimes its not.
I hunt the river a good bit, but lack of water has made it tuff. We need enough water to get in the timber usually to have a good hunt. I have noticed this year that with the low water, freezes have just pushed the ducks out and not to the river.

one thing i keep hearing is that the food source isn't as abundant along the ms flyway, due to the efficiency of combines today, as well as the economy causing farmers to try and get as much grain out of the fields and to the grainery as possible - and not letting as large of a percentage go back out to the field with the trasher waste.

is there as much grain raised along the ok/tx flyway now, as the ms flyway, or are there more natural food sources out that way?...causing them to forgo the extra distance they used to travel to get the ms flyway and instead travel a more direct southerly route from their northern habitats?

They heard the marsh had oil in it and decided to take the travel route that looked the best with all that BP early season flooding program......LOL

Global warming.....ole Hammer warned us.

is there as much grain raised along the ok/tx flyway now, as the ms flyway, or are there more natural food sources out that way?...causing them to forgo the extra distance they used to travel to get the ms flyway and instead travel a more direct southerly route from their northern habitats?

This would be something good to know. One thing is for sure- their need to pickup just as much grain and their combines certainly don't differ from ours. At least not so much as to cause a "flyway shift".

Something is happening. When I was very young mallards in the areas we hunt were in numbers like they were in some areas of the delta. Something has happened slowly but surely. Maybe science will get its head out of its butt and find out.

Lack of water and food. Freezing temps. Every A hole shooting and calling at them nonstop theses days. Maybe thats the problem.

Yeah there is a lack of natural water, but every lease pimp with some 2x4's, access to water, and some flat ground is making a duck hole in the name of making every jake leg a "duck hunter". Used to the ducks were more concentrated to areas that netually held water, or had flood waters that got out of river banks. Now the MS River Delta has water not just around the main arteries of flooded rivers and streams, but from levee to levee all the way down. Barring duck numbers actually being less than "they were"...strictly by default, more man made flooded acres equals ducks more spread out and in less concentrations.

How many bean or corn fields did you see flooded with rain early so crops could not be combined? How many places did you see CRP fields flooded instead. I believe that the land use changes of the last 25 years have caused a decline in mallard numbers and an increase of other ducks (shovelers). Why have the shovelers increased...how many catfish ponds have you seen converted via WRP and flooded?

I think land use is the major player...along with pressure. Those flooded crops used to be the primary places we hunted along with flooded hardwoods. How much flooded timber you see now that is not hammered by hunting?

Plain and simple...ducks need food and rest during the winter.

crow

Shift happens.

crow wrote:How many bean or corn fields did you see flooded with rain early so crops could not be combined? How many places did you see CRP fields flooded instead. I believe that the land use changes of the last 25 years have caused a decline in mallard numbers and an increase of other ducks (shovelers). Why have the shovelers increased...how many catfish ponds have you seen converted via WRP and flooded?

I think land use is the major player...along with pressure. Those flooded crops used to be the primary places we hunted along with flooded hardwoods. How much flooded timber you see now that is not hammered by hunting?

Plain and simple...ducks need food and rest during the winter.

crow

Ding ding ding. We have a winner. Tell em about the "bowl" on Lake George 20-30 years ago that's now growing trees as part of a mitigation project. Thousands of acres of the "worst" farming but best duck hunting ground was quickly planted in trees when WRP and CRP first became available. There were provisions for waterfowl impoundments but farmers couldn't wait to sign up their sorriest ground and get paid for it. Can't blame them. I remember a lot of soybean land that went unharvested because it got too wet. You never see that now with the varieties of soybeans we have today plus the much more efficient machines. Plus there has been a tremendous amount of land leveling that has removed the wet "corners" that couldn't be harvested. Many, many factors in play. Crow is spot on.

the reason they are killing more birds in ok and ks and other states in that part is more commercial hunting. 10 yrs ago how duck guides were there in this area. as far as duck numbers total i am no biologist but dont travel the same route every year. no ducks to begin with we need a reduction in limit on mallards 1 or 0 hens would help in the long run as far as water is concerned when we had alot of birds several yrs ago all your major lakes in ms held water during the winter now they drain them to a mud flat

GLOBAL WARMING !!!!!

Well this has nothing to do with a CURRENT flyway shift but the Tennessee River used to be a major flyway before TVA flooded it. It used to winter mallards and pintails instead of gadwalls and shovelers. That was because of flooding and food sources available have changed the overall lay of the land. So with all the new farming techniques in MS and along the MS river the mallards might be shifting again. IF they're shifting at all.

The Flyway has shifted - North

It hasn't gotten cold-enough for long-enough to push birds out of areas that still have ample food, water and shelter. Not enough snow cover either. It takes 3 days of lows in the mid-teens and highs below 35 to create dconditions that will make a duck THINK about uprooting and going into the war-zone (unknown).

Anatidae wrote:The Flyway has shifted - North

It hasn't gotten cold-enough for long-enough to push birds out of areas that still have ample food, water and shelter. Not enough snow cover either. It takes 3 days of lows in the mid-teens and highs below 35 to create dconditions that will make a duck THINK about uprooting and going into the war-zone (unknown).

I disagree. Dec/ Jan last year averaged roughly 54/34. This year has been roughly the same. Maybe a degree or warmer. Currently there is snow all down through Missouri. 4-6 inches at least. Last year was on of the worst and this year has been one of above average (If you had water). Lots of things have changed in the past twenty years.

Here is my guess
1)A larger percentage of ducks get shot in the MS flyway. If both the MS and the Central Flyway have 1 million ducks and we shoot 10% of ours and the central boy shoot 7% of their it doesn't take long for the numbers to increase in the central flyway stictly because the number of birds returning after winter. Look at the number of ducks shot by Mo, MS, AR, La and Iowa.
2)Notill drills, land level fields, and better farming all together. I don't know much about farming. Just enough to sound real ignorant to a real farmer so I apologize if I'm off base. No-till farming and seed drills allow less topsoil disruption. Seeds and winter grasses and ag byproducts can stay all winter long only to be cut and sprayed in the spring. More food in areas that drill. Mostly up north. I havent seen a new pivot in dozens of years so I'd suppose more fields are being land leveled and irriagated that way. More consistent crops. Fields that drain better. More seed for the farmer less food.
3)Weather- Ducks don't know what the temp here is when they are in des Moines. I don't believe that ducks move back north once the come down. Satellite ducks have shown this as well. Our weather the past two years has been good enough. Maybe not great but plenty good enough.
4)River- The river was at flood stage or near flood stage almost all of last year. A river out of its banks can suck up alot of ducks. Most folks I know of last year had a poor year just because #were down. This year the river is super low. River hunters are suffering and so are those who don't have water. If you have water this year then you probably are doing fair to better than average. The dry fall allowed most farmers to prep their fields if they wanted to. Less grain in fields, less weeds and invertebrate as well.

My 2 cents.