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I chose just to start another thread since its slightly different subject

If I'm not mistaken (Its been about ten years since I read Rising Tide) wasnt the precursor to the 1927 Flood an abnormally wet summer and winter in the year before? Are we seeing what could setup to be a more potentially dangerous situation that what we saw in 2011? I believe it is. If rains up north continue into winter even a little above average then I think the river could be extremely high once again.

Also, do you think the Levees will break again? I do. Its not that our Engineers aren't good because I believe they are, but I also believe that Mother Nature will never be defeated in the long term.

I cant remember in the book but I will say I rebuilt my cabin 4 ft over the water level from 2011 and id bet you it floods in my lifetime. Problem there is that is going to be serious strain on our levee system. River rises and falls faster than I ever remember.

the doc

hillhunter wrote:I chose just to start another thread since its slightly different subject

If I'm not mistaken (Its been about ten years since I read Rising Tide) wasnt the precursor to the 1927 Flood an abnormally wet summer and winter in the year before? Are we seeing what could setup to be a more potentially dangerous situation that what we saw in 2011? I believe it is. If rains up north continue into winter even a little above average then I think the river could be extremely high once again.

Also, do you think the Levees will break again? I do. Its not that our Engineers aren't good because I believe they are, but I also believe that Mother Nature will never be defeated in the long term.

The modern day SYSTEM we have (Mississippi River &Tributary System) is a different animal than we had in place in 1927. The system now is made up of not only levees, but also setback levees, spillway/floodways, river cutoffs & flood control reservoirs. The system is still only 90% complete but its still a far cry from what was in place in 1927. The 1928 Flood Control Act came about as a result of the Great Flood and the MR &T System Plan was put into place (The Jadwin Plan).
The 2011 flood was the Largest volume of water every recorded thru the valley..........i think it was since the great flood of 1882 which covered the entire delta from side to side. I recall the 2011 flood was a +250 yr flood event.
There is always a chance for more severe events but the last one was enough for me to witness in my lifetime. Hopefully this stuff will bleed on off before fall/winter and be just a distant memory.

novacaine wrote:

hillhunter wrote:I chose just to start another thread since its slightly different subject

If I'm not mistaken (Its been about ten years since I read Rising Tide) wasnt the precursor to the 1927 Flood an abnormally wet summer and winter in the year before? Are we seeing what could setup to be a more potentially dangerous situation that what we saw in 2011? I believe it is. If rains up north continue into winter even a little above average then I think the river could be extremely high once again.

Also, do you think the Levees will break again? I do. Its not that our Engineers aren't good because I believe they are, but I also believe that Mother Nature will never be defeated in the long term.

The modern day SYSTEM we have (Mississippi River &Tributary System) is a different animal than we had in place in 1927. The system now is made up of not only levees, but also setback levees, spillway/floodways, river cutoffs & flood control reservoirs. The system is still only 90% complete but its still a far cry from what was in place in 1927. The 1928 Flood Control Act came about as a result of the Great Flood and the MR &T System Plan was put into place (The Jadwin Plan).
The 2011 flood was the Largest volume of water every recorded thru the valley..........i think it was since the great flood of 1882 which covered the entire delta from side to side. I recall the 2011 flood was a +250 yr flood event.
There is always a chance for more severe events but the last one was enough for me to witness in my lifetime. Hopefully this stuff will bleed on off before fall/winter and be just a distant memory.

THIS

novacaine wrote: I recall the 2011 flood was a +250 yr flood event.
There is always a chance for more severe events but the last one was enough for me to witness in my lifetime. Hopefully this stuff will bleed on off before fall/winter and be just a distant memory.

Boy, do I hope you're right. 2011 was not a good year for me, to say the least!

novacaine wrote:

hillhunter wrote:I chose just to start another thread since its slightly different subject

If I'm not mistaken (Its been about ten years since I read Rising Tide) wasnt the precursor to the 1927 Flood an abnormally wet summer and winter in the year before? Are we seeing what could setup to be a more potentially dangerous situation that what we saw in 2011? I believe it is. If rains up north continue into winter even a little above average then I think the river could be extremely high once again.

Also, do you think the Levees will break again? I do. Its not that our Engineers aren't good because I believe they are, but I also believe that Mother Nature will never be defeated in the long term.

The modern day SYSTEM we have (Mississippi River &Tributary System) is a different animal than we had in place in 1927. The system now is made up of not only levees, but also setback levees, spillway/floodways, river cutoffs & flood control reservoirs. The system is still only 90% complete but its still a far cry from what was in place in 1927. The 1928 Flood Control Act came about as a result of the Great Flood and the MR &T System Plan was put into place (The Jadwin Plan).
The 2011 flood was the Largest volume of water every recorded thru the valley..........i think it was since the great flood of 1882 which covered the entire delta from side to side. I recall the 2011 flood was a +250 yr flood event.
There is always a chance for more severe events but the last one was enough for me to witness in my lifetime. Hopefully this stuff will bleed on off before fall/winter and be just a distant memory.

I dont disagree with you on the infrastructure part, you seem to be way more educated on it than i am. I believe we are much better prepared than we have ever been, but i just think mother nature has a slick way of sneaking up on humanity no matter how well we plan.

Just an example, what would have happened if we would have had an earthquake in the Missouri region during 2011 flood? Could the shaking and settling of already weakened soil withstood that kind of force along with water pushing at it? Even without a flood being present, a quake the size of the one that occurred in the mid 1800s I think would be enough to weaken it up and down the river, but would be very hard to detect the not so obvious weaknesses that it could cause, then next flood comes along and walla. I know I'm reaching here, and sounds like I could put on my tin hat and all, but usually when humans start talking like something cant, or wont, or likely isnt going to is when it does.

It probably wont happen anytime soon, just saying I think a couple of coincidental events close in timing to each other could cause major, devastating problems for our region.

I never, or will ever say catastrophic events won't happen. No engineer would, but you cant design for every single worst case scenario. If you design a multi story building you dont design for maximum: occupany, wind load, ice load, earthquake, impact, etc,etc.
Engineering codes look at probabilities of simultaneous occurrences. You couldn't afford to build anything if you took all worst case scenarios.

I will tell you this though, if we did have a 1800's NewMadrid type event...............EVERYTHING TURNS TO JELLO!!! High river and near surface moisture (Ms Alluvial Aquifer) just makes it melt better.
I have participated in multi state (7 state) disaster tabletop exercises looking at catastrophic earthquake events..... That levee is the LEAST of our worries. You would probably pray that the river washed you away with all the other debris!
There will be nowhere to run with all the bridges being out,electricity out, water out, fires everywhere.....
Better have a bunch of guns, ammo, gas, and a good 4 wheel drive truck or boat stored in a secure place.
Relief will come to the major areas first: St.Louis and Memphis.
If your in rural Ms or Ark...................nobody will be coming to help you.
Keep your powder dry!!!

^^^ Good perspective that some folks will never consider. Being isolated due to the failed infrastructure means you are stuck either working with or dealing with the others stuck on your "island". Neighbors help neighbors. Opportunists help themselves. It helps to have an honest judge of character.

cupnglide wrote:^^^ Good perspective that some folks will never consider. Being isolated due to the failed infrastructure means you are stuck either working with or dealing with the others stuck on your "island". Neighbors help neighbors. Opportunists help themselves. It helps to have an honest judge of character.

Drinking water and gasoline will be worth the price of gold or blood.....................OR BOTH!

novacaine wrote: I will tell you this though, if we did have a 1800's NewMadrid type event...............EVERYTHING TURNS TO JELLO!!! High river and near surface moisture (Ms Alluvial Aquifer) just makes it melt better.
I have participated in multi state (7 state) disaster tabletop exercises looking at catastrophic earthquake events..... That levee is the LEAST of our worries. You would probably pray that the river washed you away with all the other debris!

I dont doubt that one bit! It would get pretty interesting in this region for sure, probably make Katrina look like a thunderstorm, haha. Thanks for the insight on the topic.

Not in our area. But can you imagine what a big quake would do if it triggered like the smart guys are predicting? The population density is ridiculous there.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/0 ... arthquake/