Picks of the Week
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:04 am
Last Week: 3-2
Year to Date: 12-3
Michigan -2.5 at Wisconsin
I'm as big a believer as anyone that Wisconsin was very underrated going into the season, but to have essentially a Pick-Em game with Michigan now makes me think they're a bit overrated. Michigan hasn't lost a Big Ten opener since 1981, Lloyd Carr is 6-0 against the Badgers, and Michigan is 19-3-1 alltime in Madison. And, as the Bowling Green game showed, the Wisconsin defense is susceptible to a good passing attack. Michigan has starting tailback Mike Hart back in the lineup and the weapons to rip the Badger defense. Look for a high-scoring game, but Michigan should cover less than a field goal easily.
NC State -10 vs. North Carolina
Although they have won 9 of the past 12 meetings, Carolina goes into Raleigh with an offense on Amber Alert, and they get to face one of the top defenses in the nation, having only given up 2 TDs and 460 yards total in their two games (one of which was against #4 VA Tech). Add to the mix that NC State also has the top offense in the ACC through 2 games and QB Jay Davis is 3rd in the nation in passing efficiency. Carolina QB Matt Baker is completing 44% of his passes and he'll face a much tougher and high-pressure defense on Saturday than he's seen so far.
Iowa State -16.5 at Army
Iowa State is a tough, physical team that can dominate the line of scrimmage and force turnovers (they got 5 against then #8 Iowa). Army pretty much can't do crap on either side of the ball. Last year, ISU's biggest problem was that the O-line created huge holes, but nobody could find them; this year, Stevie Hicks seems to be able to take advantage. Army looked pretty sorry against Baylor and they're on a short week while Iowa State has had an extra week to prepare. Only risk is that ISU might be looking ahead to Nebraska next week, but even then, they should cover against the Black Knights.
Marshall -3 at Central Florida
The only reason Marshall didn't beat Kansas State was because they fumbled twice inside K-State's 5 yard line. Central Florida has a 17-game losing streak, and one of the worst defenses in the country; there is little hope that they can contain Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who is the best RB in the conference not named DeAngelo Williams. UCF also has two true freshmen starting on the offensive line this week. Marshall has won this game easily the past three years, and their QB gets to come home and play this game on his old high school field. Marshall wins easily.
Penn State -8 at Northwestern
In their last 2 games, Northwestern has given up 539 yards to Northern Illinois and 773(!) to Arizona State. Hell, even Ohio was able to move the ball against the Wildcats. Northwestern had great success at home last year, including a win over Ohio State, but too many graduations will prohibit that from happening again this year. Penn State has some serious big-play capability in Deon Butler and Derrick Williams, and QB Michael Robinson finally seems comfortable. Penn State's defense has gotten overlooked the past few years, but they were the only thing keeping the Lions in the game most weeks. They should dominate on Saturday and the offense should be able to rack up 450+ yards of offense, which ought to be enough to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Year to Date: 12-3
Michigan -2.5 at Wisconsin
I'm as big a believer as anyone that Wisconsin was very underrated going into the season, but to have essentially a Pick-Em game with Michigan now makes me think they're a bit overrated. Michigan hasn't lost a Big Ten opener since 1981, Lloyd Carr is 6-0 against the Badgers, and Michigan is 19-3-1 alltime in Madison. And, as the Bowling Green game showed, the Wisconsin defense is susceptible to a good passing attack. Michigan has starting tailback Mike Hart back in the lineup and the weapons to rip the Badger defense. Look for a high-scoring game, but Michigan should cover less than a field goal easily.
NC State -10 vs. North Carolina
Although they have won 9 of the past 12 meetings, Carolina goes into Raleigh with an offense on Amber Alert, and they get to face one of the top defenses in the nation, having only given up 2 TDs and 460 yards total in their two games (one of which was against #4 VA Tech). Add to the mix that NC State also has the top offense in the ACC through 2 games and QB Jay Davis is 3rd in the nation in passing efficiency. Carolina QB Matt Baker is completing 44% of his passes and he'll face a much tougher and high-pressure defense on Saturday than he's seen so far.
Iowa State -16.5 at Army
Iowa State is a tough, physical team that can dominate the line of scrimmage and force turnovers (they got 5 against then #8 Iowa). Army pretty much can't do crap on either side of the ball. Last year, ISU's biggest problem was that the O-line created huge holes, but nobody could find them; this year, Stevie Hicks seems to be able to take advantage. Army looked pretty sorry against Baylor and they're on a short week while Iowa State has had an extra week to prepare. Only risk is that ISU might be looking ahead to Nebraska next week, but even then, they should cover against the Black Knights.
Marshall -3 at Central Florida
The only reason Marshall didn't beat Kansas State was because they fumbled twice inside K-State's 5 yard line. Central Florida has a 17-game losing streak, and one of the worst defenses in the country; there is little hope that they can contain Marshall RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who is the best RB in the conference not named DeAngelo Williams. UCF also has two true freshmen starting on the offensive line this week. Marshall has won this game easily the past three years, and their QB gets to come home and play this game on his old high school field. Marshall wins easily.
Penn State -8 at Northwestern
In their last 2 games, Northwestern has given up 539 yards to Northern Illinois and 773(!) to Arizona State. Hell, even Ohio was able to move the ball against the Wildcats. Northwestern had great success at home last year, including a win over Ohio State, but too many graduations will prohibit that from happening again this year. Penn State has some serious big-play capability in Deon Butler and Derrick Williams, and QB Michael Robinson finally seems comfortable. Penn State's defense has gotten overlooked the past few years, but they were the only thing keeping the Lions in the game most weeks. They should dominate on Saturday and the offense should be able to rack up 450+ yards of offense, which ought to be enough to win by a couple of touchdowns.
