"I just spoke with Spencer Vaa, Waterfowl Biologist for state of South Dakota. He characterized the number of birds that will be tallied on their MidWinter Survey as "above average". He hasn't finalized this year's Mid-Winter, but the Missouri River survey info on their website showed 169,000 birds in the first week or so of January.
To put that in perspective, and again to show how winter weather influences these birds consider these numbers he gave me:
2003: Ducks not summed, but at least = 169,000, Canada Geese =400,000
2002: 108,000 ducks, 251,000 geese
2001: 27,500 ducks, 177,000 geese
2000: 163,000 ducks, 328,000 geese
1999: 53,000 ducks, 157,000 geese
1998: 531,000 ducks, 200,000 geese
1997: 22,000 ducks, 47,000 geese
1996: 81,000 ducks, 292,000 geese
1995: 40,000 ducks, 200,000+ geese
When winter sets in up there, only a few of the hardiest birds remain in places where open water exists. When winters are mild, it's apparent that lots of birds sit tight up there. That 1998 number seems out of place....but may have been that strongest of El Nino winters...I can't remember. Nonetheless...you get the picture....the number of birds counted there is related directly to winter severity. That pattern is true for the Midwest and mid-latitude states as well. On a final note, Spencer Vaa told he a friend of his was ice fishing this weekend and still seeing mallards flying around....so despite the onset of some decent cold weather....those birds are probably reluctant to leave...and there still isn't much in the way of snow up there."
OK - the population is down 20% on those gaddies - I'll agree the pop is probably down somewhat but not to the extreme that some folks are starting to think (IMO). The question is are you seeing 20% less gaddies than you did two seasons ago? No - you are seeing 80% less gaddies. One of two things may be going on here....the ducks haven't shown up in the mass numbers because the snow cover ends in Southern Ill, or some giant black hole has sucked up all of the ducks into some void.
