Migration Report

[Chad Manlove]

What's Up with the Ducks?

Will the advance of cold weather in the New Year offer southern hunters a chance to redeem the season? Time will tell.

Jackson, MS, January 7, 2004---With less than a month remaining in most state waterfowl seasons, the question remains: "Where are the ducks?" After record harvests in the late 1990's, duck seasons have been marginal for many waterfowlers in recent years, especially those avid hunters in the southern portion of the U.S. So, what's up with the ducks?

Not unlike the last two years, unfrozen lakes, ponds, and streams over large portions of the upper flyways have been the norm in 2003 according to reports from DU field staff, state wildlife agencies and waterfowler web sites. Due to unseasonably warm conditions, all sources indicate large concentrations of ducks and geese as far north as SD, WI and MN. In fact, according to the latest state waterfowl surveys conducted in mid-December, nearly four million birds remain scattered across nine states in the upper Central and Mississippi Flyways.

For example, in South Dakota, hearty birds totaling nearly 50,000 ducks and 250,000 geese remain along the Missouri river. In Northern Illinois, annual goose hunting quotas have been nearly reached and dark goose numbers are staggering. Missouri is holding the most birds, with an estimated population of 571,359 ducks alone at last count. Goose and duck hunting in these northern states continues to be excellent to good where the season remains open.

Most of the eastern Mississippi Flyway states, such as Indiana and Ohio, have seen bird numbers see-saw over the past few weeks as the weather has shifted from winter to spring and back again. KY and TN saw only a small increase in duck numbers over the Christmas break, as did portions of northern AR.

The southern end of the flyway continues to be "spotty." The Northern portions of MS and AL did report new ducks arriving with the latest front, so there is still hope. The coastal areas have also seen more birds of late, but not the numbers that are more common for this time of year. As a result, hunting has been average at best.

Most of the Mississippi Valley is still very dry this season according to Dr. Thomas Moorman, Director of Conservation Planning for Ducks Unlimited's Southern Regional Office in Jackson, MS, "We're still dry down here and there is no river flooding of which I am aware. Without this core of habitat, it will be difficult to hold birds as they make a move south," he said.

"This recent front was strong, but we didn't get significant rainfall, and that has been the pattern all winter. We need good arctic fronts that produce heavy rain as they move through the Deep South. That produces floods in the White River, the Yazoo River and others that haven't flooded much during recent duck seasons. Add to that the fact that weather behind these fronts has had a tendency to moderate quickly, and we just don't have conditions that make birds move south, or stay in the region if they do move because habitat conditions are far less than ideal," he added.

Fortunately, according to most weather reports, the recent cold front is supposed to linger, causing below freezing temperatures at night in the key mid-tier states of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky for the next two weeks of January. That would suggest frequent bird movement as water and food supplies are exhausted. So perhaps a change of plans can shake off some of the slow season blues for hunters in the southern end of the flyway.

DU biologist Chad Manlove has not lost hope: "As a passionate Mississippi waterfowler, I've been frustrated by the continued warm weather patterns experienced in mid-latitude states. Under these conditions, mallards will tend to hold-up until freezing temperatures reduce their available water and food resources. I've got my fingers crossed that the recent cold front will send a few birds south, allowing southern ducks hunters to finish the season with a BANG."

Visit http://www.ducks.org throughout the season for migration updates, and check out the "Duck Watch" section in the members-only message boards for up-to-the-minute reports from other hunters across the country.

Special Thanks to: http://www.waterfowler.com, DU's Regional Offices, and a host of Federal & State Wildlife and Natural Resources Agencies for their updates

[Duckdawg10]

Blame DU!!!

[spoonie]

hey chad thanks for that report.And thanks for the --- best looking one i have seen thanks, and come back for another outstanding hunt.

[jkm1272]

When the next two weeks of cold weather does not push ducks down, I am going to say something I have been for two years: I TOLD YOU SO!

I just want someone to find out what is the problem. I have a friend who is a biologist (not a duck biologist), and he even thinks that there is a problem. I don't buy that the flyway has changed. I don't believe something that a flyway that has been here for millions of years can change in three years.

[BigLou2]

When all you do is spend money making more habitat to hold ducks, it works. All the money that DU has spent on habitat has worked and the ducks do not have to leave. They should have spent that money on predator research and how to increase numbers. Money spent on habitat in the breeding ground..... not in the flyway halfway down. The habitat should be increased at the start and fininsh..... no in the middle. If you ever want to change a wild animal from their course then change the habitat in the middle, and that is what DU has sucessfully done. My money goes to the research DELTA WATERFOWL! we don't need habitat, we need answers to increase numbers!

[chubbs]

I know this is an old subject but i think it needs to be rehashed as i look at what some are saying. Increased habitat throughout the migrational route will increase over-winter survival resulting in a larger and healthier duck population. If there were little to no available duck habitat in the "in-between" states duck populaitons would decline due to a decrease in over-winter survival. So you see, it is very important to have habitat half way down. if there weren't we would see and harvest fewer and fewer ducks. Furthermore, DU has done a enormous amount of work on the breeding grounds as well as the wintering grounds. The real problem as i see it is the governmental policies in Canada. If you take a look, Canada has no farm programs analogous to our CRP or WRP. The Canadian landscape looks like a moonscape from LANDSAT imagery. There is very little breeding habitat up there and it could be awesome if Canada would get their ars in gear and do something to preserve their ecosystems.

Predator control is not the answer to increase duck population numbers. It is just not economically or practically feasible. Yes, it does increase duck production but it cannot be done a large enough scale to make an impact. So, why divert important funds away from acquiring duck habitat by throwing it into predator control. Predator control is useful on publicly managed areas where the goal is to increase duck production but it is just not logistically possible and is just too damn expensive to have an impact on the overall duck populations.

Say what you will about DU but they have done more to help duck populaitons this past century than any other private conservation group in the nation.

[JimWalker]

I think water has a lot to do with low ducks. You can look at this URL for historic rainfalls.

Rainfall

It doesn't really tell the story because what we need is long or heavy rain in one large dose.
Totals and averages monthly don't reflect that.
Everthing tops off when we get a 6 incher, even if that is all the rain we get for the entire month.

[jkm1272]

If I remember correctly, it was very wet last year. I believe two hurricanes dumped water on us. I didn't even have to turn on the well.

NO DUCKS, NO DUCKS, NO DUCKS!!!

[cajun squealer]

IMHO, I feel that the post subject of this thread is terribly misleading. I truly believe that a more fitting title would be "Migrationless Report".

[BigLou2]

How much did DU give to the poor souls that could not afford to develop their own sanctuary at FIGHTING BAYOU? You know DU just did not think they would have enough money to do it themseveles. It is so amazing that people think they duck did not survive migration until DU came along and developed a place for them to rest. PLEASEEEEEE ducks have been migrating long before DU came along and screwed it up! DU collects from the average duck hunter and gives its funding for habitat to those that do not need the assistance and in places where it is not needed.

[jkm1272]

Don't know if it is true or not, but I heard Fighting Bayou was holding over 100,000 ducks right now. That seems like an awful lot of ducks. That may have been a bit untruthful.

Definetly should have been call the Migrateless Report.

[Rebelducky]

You know guys we can point our fingers at DU, Delta Waterfowl, Fancy deep pocket hunting resorts that are planting an leaving more for the birds from Cananda on down. Heck we've even cussed that littled Mexican fell'er, El-Nino and the list goes on. For those of us that had chased our feathered friends for 30 plus years have experienced the ups and downs throughout. "Back then" we blamed the weather...not cold enough, too cold and everything froze up. For those of us that have experienced the beauty of a cyclone of Mallards comming into your spread from the Heavens truly know that a few days like this will spoil you. These days will return and we will be blessed and thankful for the times once again. Until then, let us enjoy the friendship of good buddies, good dogs, and the health to get up and watch the sunrise that so many are not forturnate enough to enjoy. Complaining about it will not do any of any good. Praise for the Man upstairs will help more than anything.
Good luck to you all and may you be blessed as I have been.

[jkm1272]

Complaining my actually get someone to look into the problem. If you sit silently nothing will ever happen.

This is a saying from a holocaust survivor about not speaking up:

First they came for the communist, and I did not speak up,
then they came for the unionist, and I did not speak up,
then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak up,
then they came for me,
and there was no one left to speak.

[lefthorn]

Nice post rebel

[Chuckle12]

Short-stopping... DU has produced too much habitat in the middle of the flyway... no water... the ducks are migrating down the EC flyway instead of the MS flyway (and they changed their migratory pattern in just over 5 yrs I might add , complete BS).

The only real problem I see is the fact that it is 70 degrees on Jan 2 and hasn't hardly snowed over 1" below the Canadian border all winter. As a matter of fact it just got below freezing this week. It'll take at least 2 weeks before most of the big water in MO and IL locks up, even at a high of 25 degrees. Until then, in the illustrious words of jmk1272: NO DUCKS, NO DUCKS, NO DUCKS! Those ducks are gonna stay where they are until they run out of food (which ain't happenin') or get froze out.

Yeah, we killed a few at the beginning of the year, even limited once or twice, but those ducks were on those holes since before Thanksgiving. Hell, this little cold front we got now might've even pushed a few stragglers down, but we aren't gonna see big numbers of ducks until it gets COLD, like it used to in the late 90's. We used to have at least one or two good, hard ice storms every winter. Now, if we even get any highs below 32, it's in the middle of February!

Hunting pressure has a major impact on duck migration. But enough to make ducks completely change their migratory pattern to new wintering grounds in 5 yrs? There are enough non-huntable fields and refuges in LA, MS and AR to hold every duck in the MS flyway. We got a field north of Rolling Fork that we haven't set foot on all year, planted in millet and asian rice, a free resting hole for any tired and hungry duck. There ain't a damn duck anywhere near that place!

Here's a theory that will blow everyone's minds: the winters have been milder over the past 5 yrs, which has resulted in shorter migration necessary for food and open water, which has resulted in better harvests for hunters in MO and northern AR and terrible harvests for hunters in MS and LA.